Your boss just asked you this question again: "So John, do you think we are going to win this deal?".
This is precisely the question you hate answering to...because you have no "real" idea. Want some help?
Of course you wish to get it and you do your best every-single-day, but articulating why you think you will get it (or not) is just embarrassing. There are more than one model to help you 'mapping' the situation and establishing facts that lead to a realistic percentage to win a deal. Let's review today a simple but very powerful one.
The key is to understand what the customer's expectations and requirements are and how he perceives your solution vs. the competition's. There are basically two different situations.
Pusher
The customer wants the "MOST of something".
That could be the "highest discount", the "best price", the "highest level of security', the "highest number of day of free consulting" or "the feature to do something within the shortest time".The baseline is that "More is Better". No matter if your solution can deliver everything he wants, he will pick the provider that will offer him the MOST of what he wants.
This kind of criteria is called a Pusher because the customer is pushing to get the most of something.
This is a margin killer when price is a pusher, and the deal will go to the company with the lower price; that is particularly true for commodity product for which they are very little technical differentiators.
Blocker
The other situation is very different. The customer wants now "A LEAST A CERTAIN LEVEL of something". There is a threshold that should be reached in order to be part of the game.
For example your solution should have a 99.999% availability ratio (99,998% won't give you any chance to win), your should have at least 5 references in a given vertical (your have only 4, you're dead, but having 5, 10 or 15 doesn't make any difference), your software should have an open API (again, not having an API would be a killer) or you should be able to execute program in less than 5 seconds (5.1 sec and you are out, but no incentive to do it in 3 sec vs. 4).
This kind of criteria is named a Blocker, because you are blocked if you don't reach the threshold. But there is no interest being better than the others or even being the best. As long as you have passed the threshold, you are good.
What to do with this? Well, you can establish a simple map of your sale situation. Let's say you have identified 3 buying criteria, 2 of which are Pushers, and the fourth one being a Blocker. You have two competitors. Here are two typical situations:
- You win!
Competitor A is out because is doesn't reach the threshold on Criteria 3.
Although Competitor B is way better than you are on Criteria 3, you are good enough (Blocker). But you are better than B on the first two criteria (Pusher)
You should win this deal.
- You lose!
This time Competitor A has passed the threshold on Criteria 3 (Blocker) and he is still better than you are on Criteria 1 and 2 that are both Pushers.
Competitor B is out. He is the weakest on Criteria 1 and 2 although being the best on 3 (which is useless: blocker).
A will get the deal.
Conclusion
You see, it is easy and quite powerful. From there you can even create a winning strategy such as turning one of your unique differentiators as a Blocker in the customer's mind (making him seeing the world with your eyes and creating a "Must Have" with a "Threshold" that you will be the only one able to fulfill).
If he wants it and you are the only one able to provide it, you are good...and your boss will love your explanation!
